In the interview, Hao Rui, chief analysis officer of Camming Bearing, analyzed the recent steel price trends, the international and Chinese steel market environment, supply, demand, raw fuel prices and other aspects.
Regarding the situation of the international and domestic steel market environment, Kaiming Bearing believes that under the continuous loose international monetary policy, the ultra-loose state will continue to be maintained in the next one or two years, which will have more support for the price of bulk commodity steel, including the price of raw materials. Strong. The Central Economic Work Conference of China made it clear that the macro policy in 2021 should maintain continuity, stability and sustainability, and emphasized that there should be no sharp turn in policy operations. However, judging from the notion of "no rush", it not only emphasizes "no rush", but also clarifies the "turn", which shows that there are indeed signs of policy tightening this year. But at present, the harvest is still very slow, which is also a support for bulk commodities.
Hao Rui, chief analysis officer of Camming Bearing, said that the current domestic steel production will remain high and the supply pressure will be high, but the later release of production capacity will be suppressed by multiple factors, and a shortage is likely to occur. The first is China's Tangshan environmental protection limit production, and its implementation has been significantly increased. If strictly implemented in accordance with the policy, the annual output of molten iron will be affected by about 27 million tons. At the same time, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China has repeatedly emphasized the need to reduce annual crude steel output to ensure a year-on-year decline.
In terms of inventory, the overall steel inventory this year is at a relatively high level in the past five years. The current rate of social inventory depletion is moderate, and the pressure on steel mills and construction steel inventory is on the high side. Because this year's total inventory is higher than the same period in previous years, we need to pay attention to the speed of inventory digestion in the later period. However, this year's overall inventory structure is relatively healthy, and resources are mainly in the hands of steel mills and steel mill agents, while small and medium traders and terminal enterprises have fewer inventories.
Hao Rui, chief analysis officer of Camin Bearings, said that the demand side of construction steel is currently tepid, but the demand for industrial steel is expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate. According to customs statistics, in the first two months of this year, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 5.44 trillion yuan, an increase of 32.2% over the same period last year (the same below) (an increase of 19% over 2019). The new export order index reached 48.8% in February, falling below 50%, but the data in March quickly recovered and reached 51.2%, the highest level in recent years. This shows the fiery state of the entire manufacturing industry. Will continue to be maintained.
Hao Rui, chief analysis officer of Camming Bearing, said that the cost of raw materials and fuel for steel in the short-term has remained high and has fallen, and cost support has weakened. Iron ore prices focus on China-Australia relations and the implementation of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's policy to reduce crude steel production; coke prices focus on the construction progress and capacity release of new coke ovens in Shanxi, Henan and other places, and the implementation of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's policy to reduce crude steel production.
Regarding the later trend, Hao Rui, chief analysis officer of Camming Bearing, believes that China's domestic steel prices will fluctuate upward this year. The increase is mainly due to the implementation of Tangshan's production restriction, the time and the intensity of the reduction of the crude steel production rules issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. influences.
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